Research
Every note we publish, in one list. A framework stance is a directional read on risk and reward at the stated horizon. It is not a price target and it is not a regulated investment rating.
IBM
International Business Machines
A three-to-five-year long, separate from our closed IBM trade note. Enterprise AI gets stuck at integration, hybrid deployment and governance, and IBM owns that layer. We bought the selloff that mistook ROI discipline for a problem.
Constructive
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
Ten times forward earnings, a low-teens free cash flow yield and a shrinking share count, where the branded-checkout decline that scared everyone off has stabilised for two quarters. Agentic-commerce rails attached for free.
Constructive
S
SentinelOne
The valuation-gap bet: ARR growing 22% at 7.6 times sales against the leader's 45, with net cash and improving margins. The autonomous SOC is the prize. Our highest-risk long, sized for it.
Constructive
RTX
RTX Corporation
A three-to-five-year hold on the munitions resupply cycle. The constraint in air and missile defense is interceptor production, and RTX owns the stack that makes it. Entered just above the Street, so patience is the risk.
Constructive
IBM
International Business Machines
A trade note, not an initiation. Long October calls on drift and Accenture read-across, with the position expiring five days before IBM's third quarter print. We publish how it loses, because on a short-dated out of the money call the losing paths are the likely ones.
Trade
NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics
The first global Phase 3 win for in vivo gene editing, filed with priority review for a 10 March 2027 decision, at a $1.09B enterprise value with 33% of the float short. The reason to own it is probably not the drug about to be approved.
Constructive
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
A 34.9% return on equity and a segmentation advantage competitors have not closed in twenty years, priced at 11 times earnings into a softening rate cycle. The structural question is the pool itself: 87% of premium is personal auto.
Neutral
CRSP
CRISPR Therapeutics AG
The only approved CRISPR medicine, the largest treasury in the subsector, and a wholly owned in vivo pipeline validated by clean CTX310 hepatic data, against a 19.5% short base at a 12.8 day cover ratio.
Constructive
KDKFocus
Kodiak AI
First mover in paid driverless trucking on a going-concern balance sheet. The more durable idea sits one layer over, in the commercial trucking insurance complex the technology is about to rewrite.
Speculative
Notes are published as web documents and as downloadable PDFs. Figures are stated as of the note date and are reported on a settlement or filing lag; they are not updated in place without a dated revision.